DEA Working Paper No. 12, November 2005

Asymmetric Multivariate Stochastic Volatility


Manabu Asai and Michael McAleer

Abstract 

This paper proposes and analyses two types of asymmetric multivariate stochastic
volatility (SV) models, namely: (i) SV with leverage (SV-L) model, which is based on
the negative correlation between the innovations in the returns and volatility; and (ii)
SV with leverage and size effect (SV-LSE) model, which is based on the signs and
magnitude of the returns. The paper derives the state space form for the logarithm of the squared returns which follow the multivariate SV-L model, and develops estimation methods for the multivariate SV-L and SV-LSE models based on the Monte Carlo likelihood (MCL) approach. The empirical results show that the multivariate SV-LSE model fits the bivariate and trivariate returns of the S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng indexes with respect to AIC and BIC more accurately than does the multivariate SV-L model. Moreover, the empirical results suggest that the univariate models should be rejected in favour of their bivariate and trivariate counterparts.

 

Keywords: Multivariate stochastic volatility, asymmetric leverage, dynamic leverage, size effect, numerical likelihood, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo, importance sampling.

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