
DEA Working Paper No. 12,
November
2005
Asymmetric Multivariate Stochastic Volatility
Manabu Asai and Michael McAleer
Abstract
This paper proposes and analyses two types of asymmetric
multivariate stochastic
volatility (SV) models, namely: (i) SV with leverage (SV-L) model, which is
based on
the negative correlation between the innovations in the returns and volatility;
and (ii)
SV with leverage and size effect (SV-LSE) model, which is based on the signs and
magnitude of the returns. The paper derives the state space form for the
logarithm of the squared returns which follow the multivariate SV-L model, and
develops estimation methods for the multivariate SV-L and SV-LSE models based on
the Monte Carlo likelihood (MCL) approach. The empirical results show that the
multivariate SV-LSE model fits the bivariate and trivariate returns of the S&P
500, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng indexes with respect to AIC and BIC more
accurately than does the multivariate SV-L model. Moreover, the empirical
results suggest that the univariate models should be rejected in favour of their
bivariate and trivariate counterparts.
Keywords: Multivariate stochastic volatility, asymmetric leverage, dynamic leverage, size effect, numerical likelihood, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo, importance sampling.
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